Trefelin 2-1 Carmarthen Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.59
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
14%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-4.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.2pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trefelin EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 50%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.47/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.70
-12% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
312 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trefelin
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Carmarthen Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
9 Corners 1
08.03.2024 Trefelin Trefelin 1-1 HT 0-1 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
28.08.2023 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 6-1 HT 2-0 Trefelin Trefelin GALFAW
18.04.2023 Trefelin Trefelin 0-3 HT 0-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
26.08.2022 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Trefelin Trefelin GALFAW
04.12.2021 Trefelin Trefelin 0-2 HT 0-1 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
19.11.2021 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Trefelin Trefelin GALFAW
POST-MATCH Trefelin vs Carmarthen Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trefelin squeezed past Carmarthen Town 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Carmarthen Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carmarthen Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Trefelin and 2.50 for Carmarthen Town.

What was the final score of Trefelin vs Carmarthen Town?

Trefelin 2-1 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trefelin vs Carmarthen Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Trefelin 34%, draw 25%, Carmarthen Town 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carmarthen Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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