Palermo 1-0 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 12 Dec 2025

📅12/12/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
19%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
2.94
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.83
6+ Goals
10%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 28% vs market 27.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.24
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.8
X/1
17%
4.17
X/2
7%
9.77
X/X
12%
4.76
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
7%
8.21
2/X
6%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
54%
-0.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.71/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.35
-12% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
25.2 Crosses 17.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Sampdoria
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.53 xG 1.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
298 Passes 321
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 1-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
24.11.2024 Palermo Palermo 1-1 HT 1-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
17.05.2024 Palermo Palermo 2-0 HT 1-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
06.04.2024 Palermo Palermo 2-2 HT 2-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
04.11.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-0 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
26.02.2017 Palermo Palermo 1-1 HT 1-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
1-0
AWAY Sampdoria
1.47 xG 0.25
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
257 Passes 381
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 7
16 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo edged past Sampdoria 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palermo as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Palermo had 43% of the ball to Sampdoria's 57%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.47 to 0.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palermo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Palermo and 1.00 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Sampdoria?

Palermo 1-0 Sampdoria in the Italy - Serie B on 12/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Palermo 54%, draw 27%, Sampdoria 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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