Warrington Town 2-2 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 31% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.3pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.2pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-4.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Warrington Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 40%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
2.04/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.37
+51% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Warrington Town
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Alfreton Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
3 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 1
07.10.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Warrington Town Warrington Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Warrington Town
2-2
AWAY Alfreton Town
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Warrington Town vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Warrington Town and Alfreton Town couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Warrington Town had 54% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 46%, shots finished 7-8.

What was the final score of Warrington Town vs Alfreton Town?

Warrington Town 2-2 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Warrington Town vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Warrington Town win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Warrington Town 36%, draw 31%, Alfreton Town 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Warrington Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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