FC Bari 1908 3-1 Ternana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 13 Jan 2024

FC Bari 1908
3-1 HT 2-0
Ternana
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

FC Bari 1908 vs Ternana Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.75
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.19
6+ Goals
10%
20.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.92
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.44
X/2
10%
6.81
X/X
14%
4.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
27.5
2/2
15%
5.32
2/X
7%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.7pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Bari 1908 v Ternana — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Ternana EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.27/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.67
-14% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
24.8 Crosses 21.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

FC Bari 1908 vs Ternana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Bari 1908
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Ternana
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.03 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
398 Passes 292
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Ternana Ternana 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
19.03.2023 Ternana Ternana 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
28.10.2022 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-0 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
13.03.2021 Ternana Ternana 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTC
15.11.2020 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-3 HT 1-1 Ternana Ternana İTC
13.07.2020 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-1 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTC

FC Bari 1908 3-1 Ternana — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Bari 1908
3-1
AWAY Ternana
1.47 xG 0.79
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
254 Passes 283
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 36
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Bari 1908 vs Ternana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Bari 1908 got the better of Ternana 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; FC Bari 1908 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, FC Bari 1908 had 47% of the ball to Ternana's 53%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.47 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ternana led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FC Bari 1908 and 1.17 for Ternana.

What was the final score of FC Bari 1908 vs Ternana?

FC Bari 1908 3-1 Ternana in the Italy - Serie B on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Bari 1908 vs Ternana?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Bari 1908 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Bari 1908 40%, draw 29%, Ternana 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Bari 1908), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Bari 1908) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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