Castrovillari Calcio 1-1 Ragusa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 13 Jan 2024

Castrovillari Calcio
1-1
Ragusa
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie D – 2023/2024

Castrovillari Calcio vs Ragusa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.47
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
31%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
Over
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
No Pick
63%
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2-3
37%
4-5
17%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 63% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
64%
-18.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
13%
+18.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Castrovillari Calcio v Ragusa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Castrovillari Calcio The Market 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Ragusa The Market 16%
-85% / -85% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +96% / +96%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/1.00
-100% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Castrovillari Calcio vs Ragusa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Castrovillari Calcio and Ragusa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Castrovillari Calcio at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

What was the final score of Castrovillari Calcio vs Ragusa?

Castrovillari Calcio 1-1 Ragusa in the Italy - Serie D on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Castrovillari Calcio vs Ragusa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Castrovillari Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Castrovillari Calcio 46%, draw 23%, Ragusa 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Castrovillari Calcio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Castrovillari Calcio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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