MKE Ankaragücü 3-1 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.5
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.22
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
8%
5.09
X/2
11%
6.16
X/X
8%
4.65
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
17%
4.21
2/X EV+ ✗
13%
12.85
Value flag · 2/X at 12.85 — our 13% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.33/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.56
-14% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
16.7 Crosses 19.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.25 xG 1.36
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
314 Passes 265
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.08.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-2 HT 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
29.04.2023 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 0-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
04.11.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-1 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
11.05.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-1 HT 2-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
21.01.2021 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 1-0 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
02.02.2020 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 1-1 HT 0-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
3-1
AWAY Kasımpaşa
2.33 xG 1.47
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
204 Passes 435
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MKE Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MKE Ankaragücü got the better of Kasımpaşa 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 36% — and on the day MKE Ankaragücü made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, MKE Ankaragücü had 36% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 64%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 2.33 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MKE Ankaragücü and 1.33 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of MKE Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?

MKE Ankaragücü 3-1 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MKE Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a MKE Ankaragücü win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split MKE Ankaragücü 37%, draw 28%, Kasımpaşa 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) ✗ Under 2.5
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