Mainz 05 2-1 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 13 Jan 2026

📅13/01/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.32
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
20%
4.44
X/2
7%
9.12
X/X
8%
5.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.1
2/2
15%
7.02
2/X
6%
15.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.9pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.1pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -7%
1.67/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.60
-22% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
21.9 Crosses 18.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Heidenheim
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 0.82
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 Passes 285
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
28.09.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-2 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
05.05.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.12.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
2-1
AWAY Heidenheim
1.39 xG 1.55
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
255 Passes 376
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 nicked a narrow win over Heidenheim 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 42% of the ball to Heidenheim's 58%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.39 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.00 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim?

Mainz 05 2-1 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 13/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 49%, draw 23%, Heidenheim 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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