Heidenheim 0-2 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.82
Over 2.5
58%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.75
No
43%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.48
6+ Goals
12%
13.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.48 — our 26% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.43
1/2
8%
25.0
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
14%
7.34
X/2
18%
4.78
X/X
13%
4.59
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.79
2/X
7%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+5.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-4.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
51%
-9.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
49%
+9.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.0pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 49%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +2%
1.41/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.91
-24% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +38%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
288 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 77%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
23.1 Crosses 20.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.89 xG 1.20
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
255 Passes 356
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-2 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
05.05.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.12.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
0-2
AWAY Mainz 05
0.63 xG 2.03
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
374 Passes 274
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 got the better of Heidenheim 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Heidenheim had 56% of the ball to Mainz 05's 44%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.63 to 2.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Heidenheim had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Heidenheim and 0.33 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Mainz 05?

Heidenheim 0-2 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 33%, draw 25%, Mainz 05 42%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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