Werder Bremen 1-3 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 Feb 2025

Werder Bremen
1-3 HT 1-2
Hoffenheim
📅16/02/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
20%
3.64
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.44
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
33.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
12%
4.78
X/2
10%
8.25
X/X
6%
5.64
2/1
8%
20.9
2/2
15%
5.66
2/X
7%
13.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.5 — our 7% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.0pp
20%
Draw
24%
-4.4pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.53/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.75
-1% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
371 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
24.2 Crosses 17.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.25 xG 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
404 Passes 326
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.09.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-4 HT 3-3 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
03.03.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-1 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
07.10.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-3 HT 1-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
02.04.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
07.10.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
21.02.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-0 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1

Werder Bremen 1-3 Hoffenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
1-3
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.12 xG 1.39
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
456 Passes 242
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 27
29 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim saw off Werder Bremen 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Werder Bremen at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 62% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 38%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.12 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Werder Bremen and 2.50 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim?

Werder Bremen 1-3 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 48%, draw 20%, Hoffenheim 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Werder Bremen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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