Exeter City 0-3 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 13 Feb 2024

Exeter City
0-3 HT 0-1
Derby County
📅13/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Exeter City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
46%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.97
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.83
6+ Goals
9%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 31% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.25
1/2
10%
26.0
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
8%
6.87
X/2
11%
4.36
X/X
12%
4.45
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
25%
2.79
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
-0.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-0.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.3pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Exeter City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 50%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +14%
1.03/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.04
-22% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
226 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 72%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
19.4 Crosses 22.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Exeter City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.39 xG 1.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
286 Passes 288
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
11 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.10.2023 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
18.04.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
25.10.2022 Derby County Derby County 0-0 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1

Exeter City 0-3 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
0-3
AWAY Derby County
70% Ball Possession 30%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 1
492 Passes 160
85% Pass Accuracy 64%
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County swept aside Exeter City 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Exeter City had 70% of the ball to Derby County's 30%, shots finished 12-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Exeter City and 1.33 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Derby County?

Exeter City 0-3 Derby County in the England - 1st Division on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 27%, draw 27%, Derby County 46%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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