Leyton Orient 4-3 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 13 Feb 2024

Leyton Orient
4-3 HT 1-1
Northampton Town
📅13/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Leyton Orient vs Northampton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.98
6+ Goals
11%
18.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.16
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.5
X/1
15%
3.6
X/2
7%
9.45
X/X
11%
4.7
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
9%
8.12
2/X
6%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.0pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leyton Orient v Northampton Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.33/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.41
-20% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
336 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 66%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
20.0 Crosses 15.6
3.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Leyton Orient vs Northampton Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leyton Orient
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Northampton Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 0.82
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
301 Passes 161
69% Pass Accuracy 55%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.10.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-2 HT 0-1 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
02.01.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
15.10.2022 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
23.04.2022 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2-4 HT 1-4 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
27.11.2021 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
21.01.2020 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-1 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2

Leyton Orient 4-3 Northampton Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leyton Orient
4-3
AWAY Northampton Town
2.41 xG 0.63
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
410 Passes 247
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
32 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leyton Orient vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leyton Orient nicked a narrow win over Northampton Town 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leyton Orient as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leyton Orient had 59% of the ball to Northampton Town's 41%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.41 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leyton Orient's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Northampton Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.50 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Leyton Orient vs Northampton Town?

Leyton Orient 4-3 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leyton Orient vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leyton Orient win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Leyton Orient 53%, draw 24%, Northampton Town 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leyton Orient) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leyton Orient) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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