Bristol City 3-1 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 13 Feb 2024

📅13/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.5
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
46%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.63
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
9%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 26% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
6.23
1/2
9%
23.75
1/X
10%
14.5
X/1
10%
8.18
X/2
15%
4.13
X/X
15%
4.81
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
22%
2.4
2/X
5%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-1.4pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.8pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol City EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 55%
+0% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.14/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.70
-1% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +60%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 79%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 40.6
16.1 Crosses 21.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Southampton
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.81 xG 0.71
33% Ball Possession 67%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
255 Passes 647
75% Pass Accuracy 92%
15 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
29.11.2023 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
24.09.2013 Southampton Southampton 2-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNLK
30.12.2011 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
26.11.2011 Bristol City Bristol City 2-0 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
14.02.2009 Bristol City Bristol City 2-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
08.11.2008 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol City
3-1
AWAY Southampton
1.21 xG 1.75
32% Ball Possession 68%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
258 Passes 627
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
29 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bristol City vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol City got the better of Southampton 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Southampton at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bristol City had 32% of the ball to Southampton's 68%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.21 to 1.75 — the balance of chances actually favoured Southampton.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bristol City and 0.50 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Bristol City vs Southampton?

Bristol City 3-1 Southampton in the England - Championship on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol City vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bristol City 24%, draw 31%, Southampton 46%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✗ Under 2.5
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