Norwich City 4-2 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 13 Feb 2024

📅13/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 29% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.81
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
17%
4.71
X/2
10%
6.82
X/X
11%
4.95
2/1
6%
23.75
2/2
13%
4.71
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Norwich City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.39/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.30
+0% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
360 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
18.2 Crosses 15.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Norwich City
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Watford
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.94 xG 1.91
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
286 Passes 346
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.11.2023 Watford Watford 3-2 HT 2-2 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
02.01.2023 Norwich City Norwich City 0-1 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
15.10.2022 Watford Watford 2-1 HT 2-1 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
21.01.2022 Watford Watford 0-3 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNP
18.09.2021 Norwich City Norwich City 1-3 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNP
20.04.2021 Norwich City Norwich City 0-1 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Norwich City
4-2
AWAY Watford
1.96 xG 1.49
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 461
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Norwich City vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norwich City beat Watford 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Norwich City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Norwich City had 44% of the ball to Watford's 56%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.96 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Watford led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Norwich City and 1.67 for Watford.

What was the final score of Norwich City vs Watford?

Norwich City 4-2 Watford in the England - Championship on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Norwich City vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Norwich City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Norwich City 43%, draw 26%, Watford 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Norwich City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Norwich City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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