Novara 1-0 Pro Sesto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 13 Feb 2024

📅13/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.33
No
59%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.09
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
5.92
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-7.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
39%
+2.5pp
59%
BTTS No
61%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Pro Sesto EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / -3%
1.28/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.10
-13% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Pro Sesto
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Pro Sesto Pro Sesto 0-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
18.02.2023 Novara Novara 0-1 HT 0-1 Pro Sesto Pro Sesto İTC
19.10.2022 Pro Sesto Pro Sesto 2-1 HT 1-1 Novara Novara İTC
27.02.2021 Novara Novara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pro Sesto Pro Sesto İTC
01.11.2020 Pro Sesto Pro Sesto 3-0 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
1-0
AWAY Pro Sesto
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novara vs Pro Sesto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara squeezed past Pro Sesto 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Novara as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Novara had 52% of the ball to Pro Sesto's 48%, shots finished 12-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Pro Sesto led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Novara and 1.20 for Pro Sesto.

What was the final score of Novara vs Pro Sesto?

Novara 1-0 Pro Sesto in the Italy - Serie C on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Pro Sesto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Novara 43%, draw 30%, Pro Sesto 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Novara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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