Derry City vs Dundalk Prediction — Model Probabilities
Derry City v Dundalk — Team-Based Signals
Derry City vs Dundalk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Derry City 2-2 Dundalk — Actual Match Statistics
Derry City and Dundalk couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Derry City at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 49%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-no price stood at 1.74, roughly 57%.
On the day, possession split 64% to 36% in Derry City's favour, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.19 to 0.51.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for Derry City against 0.50 for Dundalk.
Derry City vs Dundalk Result & Final Score
Derry City 2 - 2 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 13/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Derry City vs Dundalk Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Derry City 56%, draw 24%, Dundalk 20%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.