Dundalk 0-2 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
42%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.8
Over 2.5
40%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.1
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.78
6+ Goals
7%
16.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 33% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.82
1/2
8%
24.45
1/X
9%
16.4
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
9.56
X/2
15%
3.8
X/X
9%
4.91
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.19
2/X
5%
15.6
Value flag · X/1 at 9.56 — our 18% vs market 7.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
20%
+15.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
42%
Away Win
56%
-13.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.0pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundalk EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 60%
+11% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -15%
1.02/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.98
-16% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -12%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
202 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.2 Crosses 21.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundalk
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Derry City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.01 xG 1.09
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
257 Passes 296
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.08.2024 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-1 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
31.05.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
05.04.2024 Derry City Derry City 4-1 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
01.09.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 1-3 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
15.05.2023 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
16.04.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 2-2 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundalk
0-2
AWAY Derry City
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Dundalk vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City beat Dundalk 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Dundalk had 45% of the ball to Derry City's 55%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Dundalk and 2.17 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Dundalk vs Derry City?

Dundalk 0-2 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundalk vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Dundalk 35%, draw 23%, Derry City 42%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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