Atletico Nacional 4-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 13 Feb 2026

📅13/02/2026 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.42
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
13%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
66%
+1.2pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.3pp
13%
Away Win
13%
+0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +3%
1.56/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.42
+12% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
387 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 78%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
18.9 Crosses 9.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
2.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.25 xG 0.59
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
349 Passes 280
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.08.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-2 HT 1-2 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
05.03.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 1-5 HT 1-4 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.10.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
06.04.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 1-2 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
14.04.2014 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-3 HT 2-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
4-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
3.14 xG 0.69
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
347 Passes 270
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 12
9 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional ran out comfortable winners over Fortaleza CEIF 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 55% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 45%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 3.14 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.60 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.60 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Atletico Nacional 4-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 13/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 67%, draw 19%, Fortaleza CEIF 13%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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