Matsumoto Yamaga 3-3 Renofa Yamaguchi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
44%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 34%
-55% / -55% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-37% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.11.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 0-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
28.02.2021 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
01.11.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 2-1 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
09.09.2020 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 2-2 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
3-3
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
56% Ball Possession 44%
26 Total Shots 19
13 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga and Renofa Yamaguchi couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 56% of the ball to Renofa Yamaguchi's 44%, shots finished 26-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.00 for Renofa Yamaguchi.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Matsumoto Yamaga 3-3 Renofa Yamaguchi in the Japan - League Cup on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Before kick-off our model rated an Renofa Yamaguchi win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 36%, draw 27%, Renofa Yamaguchi 37%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Renofa Yamaguchi), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Renofa Yamaguchi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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