UPDF 1-2 Kampala City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 13 Mar 2025

📅13/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
41%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.27
No
64%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
22%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+5.4pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.1pp
41%
Away Win
49%
-7.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-3.8pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Kampala City EU Bookmakers 53%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.10/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.80
-88% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -4%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
253 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Kampala City
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
42% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.10.2024 Kampala City Kampala City 0-0 HT 0-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
07.05.2024 Kampala City Kampala City 1-0 HT 1-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
05.04.2022 UPDF UPDF 0-3 HT 0-1 Kampala City Kampala City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
1-2
AWAY Kampala City
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Kampala City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kampala City squeezed past UPDF 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kampala City as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UPDF had 56% of the ball to Kampala City's 44%, shots finished 12-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kampala City led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for UPDF and 1.33 for Kampala City.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Kampala City?

UPDF 1-2 Kampala City in the Uganda - Premier League on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Kampala City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kampala City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split UPDF 27%, draw 32%, Kampala City 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kampala City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kampala City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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