Stevenage 1-2 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.19
No
61%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.4
6+ Goals
9%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 34% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.0
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.35
X/1
17%
3.43
X/2
8%
11.45
X/X
17%
4.75
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
7%
10.4
2/X
5%
19.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.9pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.5pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.1pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 19%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +29%
1.43/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.48
-40% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
340 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 184 · 60%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
28.1 Crosses 13.7
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Burton Albion
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.81 xG 1.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
186 Passes 201
57% Pass Accuracy 59%
29 Box Touches 6
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-2 HT 1-1 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
30.03.2015 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 1-1 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
25.10.2014 Stevenage Stevenage 1-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN2
22.03.2011 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-2 HT 0-1 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
16.10.2010 Stevenage Stevenage 2-1 HT 1-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN2
22.11.2008 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-0 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
1-2
AWAY Burton Albion
1.77 xG 0.41
75% Ball Possession 25%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
414 Passes 61
77% Pass Accuracy 33%
26 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion squeezed past Stevenage 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Stevenage at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stevenage had 75% of the ball to Burton Albion's 25%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.77 to 0.41 — on chances, Stevenage could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stevenage had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stevenage and 0.83 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Burton Albion?

Stevenage 1-2 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 51%, draw 28%, Burton Albion 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stevenage) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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