Burnley 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

Burnley
1-1 HT 0-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.67
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
7.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.27
1/2
5%
21.35
1/X
10%
13.6
X/1
12%
7.91
X/2
16%
4.54
X/X
8%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.44
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 10% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.7pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-6.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 54%
-3% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.38/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.55
-20% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
21.9 Crosses 15.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6

Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.15 xG 1.27
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
248 Passes 434
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
19.02.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-3 HT 0-2 Burnley Burnley İNP
14.08.2021 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
06.02.2021 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
06.11.2020 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
26.07.2020 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP

Burnley 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
1-1
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.71 xG 0.86
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
365 Passes 488
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley and Brighton & Hove Albion couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Brighton & Hove Albion at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Burnley had 44% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 56%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 1.71 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Burnley and 1.00 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Burnley 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brighton & Hove Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Burnley 34%, draw 23%, Brighton & Hove Albion 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brighton & Hove Albion), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brighton & Hove Albion) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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