Brisbane Roar 0-2 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.38
2-3 Goals
39%
2.11
4-5 Goals
26%
2.52
6+ Goals
15%
5.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.2
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.56
X/2
10%
9.09
X/X
9%
6.65
2/1
9%
19.3
2/2
10%
5.59
2/X
6%
13.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.7pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.1pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+6.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-6.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.8pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.94/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.86
-25% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
22.4 Crosses 19.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.55 xG 1.41
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
322 Passes 438
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.01.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 3-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
14.01.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
08.04.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
27.01.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 4-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
16.12.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
03.04.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
0-2
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.62 xG 0.60
64% Ball Possession 36%
23 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 2
597 Passes 299
91% Pass Accuracy 82%
57 Box Touches 14
36 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets saw off Brisbane Roar 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 64% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 36%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.62 to 0.60 — the balance of chances actually favoured Brisbane Roar.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.50 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets?

Brisbane Roar 0-2 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 49%, draw 21%, Newcastle Jets 30%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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