Sporting Braga II 2-1 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.8pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 30%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.20/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/1.47
+81% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 201 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga II
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Varzim
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Varzim Varzim 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
04.11.2023 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 2-0 HT 2-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
07.08.2023 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
17.12.2022 Varzim Varzim 1-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
04.11.2015 Varzim Varzim 1-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga II
2-1
AWAY Varzim
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga II vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga II squeezed past Varzim 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Braga II as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sporting Braga II had 54% of the ball to Varzim's 46%, shots finished 8-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Varzim led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Sporting Braga II and 1.00 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga II vs Varzim?

Sporting Braga II 2-1 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga II vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga II win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga II 43%, draw 29%, Varzim 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga II) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga II) ✗ Under 2.5
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