Lucchese 1-0 Vis Pesaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.71
Over 2.5
52%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.85
No
43%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
4.0
6+ Goals
11%
19.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-1.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
55%
-6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
45%
+6.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
50%
+7.2pp
43%
BTTS No
50%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Vis Pesaro EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.27/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.48
+15% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +124%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Vis Pesaro
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 2-1 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
28.03.2024 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 1-3 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
25.11.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 1-2 HT 0-2 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
19.02.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 3-0 HT 0-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
19.10.2022 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 0-1 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
16.02.2022 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 2-1 HT 2-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
1-0
AWAY Vis Pesaro
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs Vis Pesaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese edged past Vis Pesaro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Lucchese made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lucchese had 40% of the ball to Vis Pesaro's 60%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lucchese and 1.17 for Vis Pesaro.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs Vis Pesaro?

Lucchese 1-0 Vis Pesaro in the Italy - Serie C on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs Vis Pesaro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vis Pesaro win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 35%, draw 27%, Vis Pesaro 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vis Pesaro) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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