Bahia 1-1 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 Apr 2025

Bahia
1-1 HT 1-1
Mirassol FC
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Bahia vs Mirassol FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
17%
4.12
6+ Goals
9%
19.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 34% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1.94
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.25
X/1
19%
3.83
X/2
11%
12.25
X/X
14%
5.08
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
9%
11.1
2/X
7%
19.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
61%
-13.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.6pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+10.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.5pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Mirassol FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.65/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.14
-21% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -24%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
401 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
21.8 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0

Bahia 1-1 Mirassol FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-1
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.81 xG 0.59
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
430 Passes 339
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
41 Box Touches 8
35 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia and Mirassol FC shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Bahia had 57% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 43%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.81 to 0.59.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Mirassol FC?

Bahia 1-1 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bahia 47%, draw 27%, Mirassol FC 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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