Sao Paulo 1-1 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 Apr 2025

Sao Paulo
1-1 HT 0-0
Cruzeiro
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
18%
5.83
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.63
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.2
X/1
25%
4.19
X/2
10%
8.54
X/X
15%
3.7
2/1
12%
32.5
2/2
6%
7.79
2/X
7%
16.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.1pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.2pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Cruzeiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.30/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.34
-3% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
394 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
21.5 Crosses 14.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.87 xG 0.65
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
449 Passes 332
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.01.2025 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo HAZ
16.09.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
03.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
03.11.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
25.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
17.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Sao Paulo 1-1 Cruzeiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-1
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.43 xG 1.09
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
327 Passes 219
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo and Cruzeiro couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 57% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 43%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.43 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.50 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro?

Sao Paulo 1-1 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 49%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sao Paulo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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