Vasco da Gama 3-1 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.6
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
4.79
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.75
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.45
X/1
16%
4.38
X/2
8%
7.74
X/X
15%
4.12
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
12%
6.53
2/X
9%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.3pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 28%
-7% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -30%
1.26/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.08
-5% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
29.8 Crosses 21.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sport Recife
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.06 xG 1.10
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
292 Passes 373
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.10.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-1 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
03.07.2022 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
14.11.2020 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-2 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
14.08.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 2-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
21.10.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
10.06.2018 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-2 HT 2-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
3-1
AWAY Sport Recife
1.28 xG 0.99
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 10
330 Passes 398
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama saw off Sport Recife 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 45% of the ball to Sport Recife's 55%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.28 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vasco da Gama and 0.83 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Sport Recife?

Vasco da Gama 3-1 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 44%, draw 30%, Sport Recife 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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