Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 16 Jan 2025

📅16/01/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.41
6+ Goals
9%
23.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.78 xG 0.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 Passes 422
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
03.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
03.11.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
25.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
17.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
02.06.2019 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.83 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo in the Friendlies on 16/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 40%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cruzeiro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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