Vila Nova 1-0 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
5.27
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.2pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.5pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +17%
1.18/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.01
-17% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
20.6 Crosses 19.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Paysandu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.56 xG 1.27
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
279 Passes 279
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 4
24.11.2024 Paysandu Paysandu 2-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
06.08.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-2 HT 1-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
20.11.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BRVK
19.10.2020 Paysandu Paysandu 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRE3
15.08.2020 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BRE3
03.11.2018 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-0
AWAY Paysandu
0.51 xG 0.52
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
337 Passes 427
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova squeezed past Paysandu 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 32% / 28% — and on the day Vila Nova made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Vila Nova had 45% of the ball to Paysandu's 55%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.51 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vila Nova and 0.83 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Paysandu?

Vila Nova 1-0 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 40%, draw 32%, Paysandu 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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