Penybont 3-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.48
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
50%
+3.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-1.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +25%
1.15/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.30
-29% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-2 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
02.11.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-5 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
07.09.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 3-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
04.11.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-4 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
16.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 3-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
3-1
AWAY Caernarfon Town
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont beat Caernarfon Town 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Penybont had 56% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 44%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Penybont and 1.83 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

Penybont 3-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Penybont 54%, draw 24%, Caernarfon Town 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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