Caernarfon Town 1-5 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 2 Nov 2024

📅02/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.26
2-3 Goals
46%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 51%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +6%
1.32/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/0.69
+27% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +65%
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
274 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Penybont
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.09.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 3-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
04.11.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-4 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
16.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 3-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
07.01.2023 Penybont Penybont 5-1 HT 3-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
05.11.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont swept aside Caernarfon Town 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Caernarfon Town and 2.83 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Caernarfon Town 1-5 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 26%, draw 28%, Penybont 46%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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