Penybont 2-0 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 7 Sep 2024

Penybont
2-0 HT 1-0
Caernarfon Town
📅07/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2024/2025

Penybont vs Caernarfon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.78
2-3 Goals
42%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.82
6+ Goals
10%
7.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.78 — our 25% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-11.8pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.2pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penybont v Caernarfon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +15%
1.93/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.58
-2% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.4

Penybont vs Caernarfon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 3-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
04.11.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-4 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
16.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 3-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
07.01.2023 Penybont Penybont 5-1 HT 3-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
05.11.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
15.04.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont saw off Caernarfon Town 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Penybont and 1.50 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

Penybont 2-0 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Penybont 49%, draw 26%, Caernarfon Town 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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