Caernarfon Town 3-2 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.71
Over 2.5
56%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.82
No
42%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.68
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.9
6+ Goals
11%
18.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.9 — our 29% vs market 19.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
17%
X/2
16%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-3.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
55%
-10.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
45%
+10.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.3pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 42%
+7% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.84/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.80
+52% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +41%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Penybont
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.11.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-5 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
07.09.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 3-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
04.11.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-4 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
16.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 3-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
07.01.2023 Penybont Penybont 5-1 HT 3-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town edged past Penybont 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Caernarfon Town made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Caernarfon Town and 3.33 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Caernarfon Town 3-2 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 36%, draw 29%, Penybont 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caernarfon Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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