Ujpest 2-1 Debrecen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.42
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 27% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ujpest EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Debrecen EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -15%
1.69/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.46
+24% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
17.2 Crosses 17.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ujpest
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Debrecen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.43 xG 1.65
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
310 Passes 311
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 1-2 HT 0-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
23.08.2024 Ujpest Ujpest 3-0 HT 2-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
27.04.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
06.02.2024 Ujpest Ujpest 1-2 HT 0-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
30.09.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 1-2 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
05.03.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 1-1 HT 1-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ujpest
2-1
AWAY Debrecen
0.79 xG 0.64
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
265 Passes 331
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ujpest vs Debrecen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ujpest nicked a narrow win over Debrecen 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Ujpest found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Ujpest had 45% of the ball to Debrecen's 55%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.79 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ujpest had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ujpest and 1.00 for Debrecen.

What was the final score of Ujpest vs Debrecen?

Ujpest 2-1 Debrecen in the Hungary - NB I on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ujpest vs Debrecen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Debrecen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ujpest 37%, draw 26%, Debrecen 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Debrecen), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Debrecen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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