Atlas 2-3 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 Apr 2025

Atlas
2-3 HT 2-2
Toluca
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Atlas vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.47 — our 26% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+2.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.2pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlas v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 50%
-6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -19%
1.11/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.06
-11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
288 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
18.6 Crosses 15.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atlas vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Toluca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.66 xG 1.32
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
333 Passes 356
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.09.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 2-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
07.04.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 2-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
27.08.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.02.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
10.07.2022 Toluca Toluca 3-2 HT 3-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
24.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-4 HT 1-2 Atlas Atlas MEK

Atlas 2-3 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
2-3
AWAY Toluca
1.80 xG 1.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
264 Passes 380
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca squeezed past Atlas 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atlas had 43% of the ball to Toluca's 57%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.80 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atlas and 2.17 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Toluca?

Atlas 2-3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atlas 31%, draw 26%, Toluca 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toluca)
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