Leon 1-0 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 Apr 2025

Leon
1-0 HT 0-0
Puebla
📅13/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.07
6+ Goals
9%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 30% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
59%
-13.1pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.8pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -15%
1.76/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.68
-7% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
20.2 Crosses 16.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.92 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
309 Passes 273
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.07.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
17.03.2024 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
04.11.2023 Puebla Puebla 5-4 HT 1-3 Leon Leon MEK
15.02.2023 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
16.07.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
17.04.2022 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-0
AWAY Puebla
1.19 xG 0.45
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
477 Passes 195
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Leon vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon squeezed past Puebla 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Leon as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Leon had 67% of the ball to Puebla's 33%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.19 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Leon and 1.67 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Leon vs Puebla?

Leon 1-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Leon 46%, draw 30%, Puebla 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leon), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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