Puebla 2-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Jul 2024

Puebla
2-2 HT 1-1
Leon
📅17/07/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Puebla vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.5
No
42%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.51
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.91
6+ Goals
13%
8.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
62%
-4.6pp
42%
BTTS No
38%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -11%
1.43/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.98
+11% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
272 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 81%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
20.6 Crosses 16.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Puebla vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Leon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.10 xG 2.11
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
267 Passes 279
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
04.11.2023 Puebla Puebla 5-4 HT 1-3 Leon Leon MEK
15.02.2023 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
16.07.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
17.04.2022 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
29.11.2021 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK

Puebla 2-2 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
2-2
AWAY Leon
2.72 xG 0.71
38% Ball Possession 62%
22 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
215 Passes 432
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla and Leon couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Leon at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Puebla had 38% of the ball to Leon's 62%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.72 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Puebla and 1.83 for Leon.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Leon?

Puebla 2-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 17/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Puebla 32%, draw 25%, Leon 42%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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