Atlas 1-0 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Jul 2024

📅17/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
31%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.37
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+9.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 25%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -24%
1.70/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.81
-33% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
22.5 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.09 xG 0.59
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
352 Passes 277
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2024 Atlas Atlas 3-0 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
14.07.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
27.01.2023 Atlas Atlas 2-2 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
01.08.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
07.02.2022 Atlas Atlas 2-1 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
19.08.2021 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-1 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
1-0
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.06 xG 0.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
22 Total Shots 2
5 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 4
344 Passes 377
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
45 Box Touches 4
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas squeezed past Santos Laguna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atlas as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atlas had 49% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 51%, shots finished 22-2, expected goals 2.06 to 0.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atlas's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atlas and 0.83 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Santos Laguna?

Atlas 1-0 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 17/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atlas 44%, draw 25%, Santos Laguna 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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