Queretaro 0-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Jul 2024

📅17/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.28
6+ Goals
9%
21.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 34% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+5.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
37%
Away Win
44%
-7.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.22/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.05
-1% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +38%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
272 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
19.1 Crosses 18.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.11 xG 1.63
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
219 Passes 367
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
01.11.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
06.02.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
28.07.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 2-2 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
23.01.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
30.09.2021 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
0-2
AWAY Guadalajara
0.64 xG 2.26
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
261 Passes 379
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara saw off Queretaro 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 30% / 37% — and on the day Guadalajara made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Queretaro had 42% of the ball to Guadalajara's 58%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 0.64 to 2.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Queretaro and 1.33 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Guadalajara?

Queretaro 0-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 17/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 33%, draw 30%, Guadalajara 37%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
17 Jul 2024
04:00 Pachuca vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
04:00 Atlas vs Santos Laguna Analysis →
06:00 Puebla vs Leon Analysis →
06:05 Cruz Azul vs Tijuana Analysis →