Toluca vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Atlas — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
0-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
3-2
HT 3-1
Atlas
MEK
2-4
HT 1-2
Atlas
MEK
0-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 4-1 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca swept aside Atlas 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Toluca had 51% of the ball to Atlas's 49%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.82 to 1.47 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atlas.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toluca and 1.17 for Atlas.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca 4-1 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Atlas?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Toluca 56%, draw 23%, Atlas 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.