Pachuca 2-4 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Sep 2024

Pachuca
2-4 HT 2-1
Cruz Azul
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.49
6+ Goals
8%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 30% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pachuca v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.20/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.15
-19% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
19.5 Crosses 19.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.18 xG 1.13
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 Passes 329
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.01.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
24.08.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.04.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
10.07.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 0-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
20.03.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
30.08.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-1 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Pachuca 2-4 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
2-4
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.77 xG 2.41
30% Ball Possession 70%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 3
227 Passes 658
80% Pass Accuracy 91%
16 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul beat Pachuca 4-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; Cruz Azul found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pachuca had 30% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 70%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.77 to 2.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pachuca and 0.67 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

Pachuca 2-4 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 36%, draw 25%, Cruz Azul 39%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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