Guadalajara 1-1 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Sep 2024

Guadalajara
1-1 HT 1-0
Monterrey
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Guadalajara vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.78
Over 2.5
37%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.76
No
61%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.83
6+ Goals
9%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 34% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
52%
+10.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
48%
-10.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
53%
-14.1pp
61%
BTTS No
47%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guadalajara v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +11%
1.29/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.25
-9% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 77%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
18.9 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.9

Guadalajara vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Monterrey
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.82 xG 1.24
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
331 Passes 305
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 0-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
04.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
08.01.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
24.08.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
14.04.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-3 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
22.08.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Guadalajara 1-1 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
1-1
AWAY Monterrey
1.84 xG 0.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
314 Passes 368
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara and Monterrey couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Guadalajara had 47% of the ball to Monterrey's 53%, shots finished 9-5, expected goals 1.84 to 0.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guadalajara and 0.83 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Monterrey?

Guadalajara 1-1 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 45%, draw 29%, Monterrey 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Guadalajara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
29 Sep 2024
02:00 Toluca vs Atlas Analysis →
04:05 Pachuca vs Cruz Azul Analysis →
06:10 Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna Analysis →