Zenit St. Petersburg 4-1 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.08
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
10%
14.65
X/1
15%
4.24
X/2
10%
10.45
X/X
7%
5.63
2/1
7%
22.0
2/2
9%
8.25
2/X
8%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+7.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.76/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.70
+9% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
23.0 Crosses 9.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Krasnodar
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.13 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
412 Passes 317
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-0 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
13.07.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 4-2 HT 3-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar Rusya - Süper Kupa
13.04.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-2 HT 1-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
11.11.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
13.05.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
30.10.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-1 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
4-1
AWAY Krasnodar
1.87 xG 0.46
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
230 Passes 279
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Zenit St. Petersburg vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg swept aside Krasnodar 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Zenit St. Petersburg had 46% of the ball to Krasnodar's 54%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 1.87 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Zenit St. Petersburg and 1.33 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of Zenit St. Petersburg vs Krasnodar?

Zenit St. Petersburg 4-1 Krasnodar in the Russia - Premier League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zenit St. Petersburg vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Zenit St. Petersburg 49%, draw 25%, Krasnodar 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
13 Apr 2025
14:30 Akron vs Fakel Analysis →
19:30 Khimki vs Krylya Sovetov Analysis →