Backa Topola 1-2 Novi Pazar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.7pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
2.05/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.36
+30% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 72%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
18.5 Crosses 13.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Novi Pazar
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.06 xG 1.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
343 Passes 287
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.02.2025 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
21.09.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 5-2 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
02.04.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 3-4 HT 2-2 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
29.10.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
04.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 4-0 HT 2-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
05.02.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-2
AWAY Novi Pazar
1.06 xG 1.51
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
346 Passes 270
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novi Pazar nicked a narrow win over Backa Topola 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Backa Topola at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Backa Topola had 56% of the ball to Novi Pazar's 44%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.06 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Backa Topola had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Backa Topola and 1.67 for Novi Pazar.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar?

Backa Topola 1-2 Novi Pazar in the Serbia - Super League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 48%, draw 26%, Novi Pazar 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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