Kayserispor 1-0 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.21
Over 2.5
59%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.47
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
30%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
7.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.02
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
18%
5.43
X/2
10%
6.93
X/X
9%
5.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.9
2/2
15%
4.41
2/X
9%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.5pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.64/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.57
+3% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
26.2 Crosses 20.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kayserispor
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.41
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
292 Passes 353
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-2 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
03.04.2024 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-2 HT 0-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
11.11.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-4 HT 1-3 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
19.04.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
23.10.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-1 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
23.01.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-1 HT 2-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kayserispor
1-0
AWAY Kasımpaşa
0.46 xG 0.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
255 Passes 285
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
9 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kayserispor nicked a narrow win over Kasımpaşa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kayserispor as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kayserispor had 48% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 52%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 0.46 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kayserispor and 1.50 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?

Kayserispor 1-0 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kayserispor win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kayserispor 45%, draw 25%, Kasımpaşa 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kayserispor) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kayserispor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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