Gaziantep FK 2-1 Hatayspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.61
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.86
2-3 Goals
42%
2.07
4-5 Goals
24%
2.54
6+ Goals
15%
5.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.01
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.15
X/1
11%
4.57
X/2
8%
10.6
X/X
15%
7.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.75
2/2
12%
7.19
2/X
5%
15.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.75 — our 10% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.0pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.1pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.75/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.71
-37% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
383 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 80%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.1 Crosses 16.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gaziantep FK
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Hatayspor
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.07 xG 1.35
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
274 Passes 377
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Hatayspor Hatayspor 3-1 HT 2-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
05.05.2024 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-1 HT 1-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
10.01.2024 Hatayspor Hatayspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
01.02.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 4-1 HT 1-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
20.08.2022 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-2 HT 1-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
07.03.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-2 HT 1-2 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gaziantep FK
2-1
AWAY Hatayspor
2.70 xG 1.34
56% Ball Possession 44%
24 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
416 Passes 303
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
51 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gaziantep FK nicked a narrow win over Hatayspor 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gaziantep FK as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Gaziantep FK had 56% of the ball to Hatayspor's 44%, shots finished 24-17, expected goals 2.70 to 1.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gaziantep FK's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gaziantep FK had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.33 for Hatayspor.

What was the final score of Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor?

Gaziantep FK 2-1 Hatayspor in the Turkey - Super League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gaziantep FK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Gaziantep FK 50%, draw 25%, Hatayspor 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gaziantep FK), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gaziantep FK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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