ES Metlaoui 1-0 AS Marsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2026

📅13/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.36
Over 2.5
41%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.44
No
54%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
1.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
6.69
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.1pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
70%
-10.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
30%
+10.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
37%
+9.6pp
54%
BTTS No
63%
-9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.29/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.64/1.31
+15% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -36%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Metlaoui
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AS Marsa
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.10.2025 AS Marsa AS Marsa 0-1 HT 0-1 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
12.05.2024 AS Marsa AS Marsa 1-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN
18.02.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 3-1 HT 1-0 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN
03.01.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 0-1 HT 0-1 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN1B
22.10.2023 AS Marsa AS Marsa 1-1 HT 0-1 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1B
31.10.2015 AS Marsa AS Marsa 0-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
POST-MATCH ES Metlaoui vs AS Marsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Metlaoui nicked a narrow win over AS Marsa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had ES Metlaoui as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for ES Metlaoui and 0.67 for AS Marsa.

What was the final score of ES Metlaoui vs AS Marsa?

ES Metlaoui 1-0 AS Marsa in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 13/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Metlaoui vs AS Marsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Metlaoui win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split ES Metlaoui 43%, draw 32%, AS Marsa 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ES Metlaoui), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ES Metlaoui) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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