Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Changchun YaTai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.27
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
13%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.94
Over 2.5
62%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
9.9
2-3 Goals
34%
2.54
4-5 Goals
33%
2.32
6+ Goals
16%
3.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.37
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
23.15
X/1
15%
3.84
X/2
4%
23.6
X/X
7%
11.5
2/1
8%
17.9
2/2
6%
14.7
2/X
7%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
74%
-5.8pp
18%
Draw
15%
+3.4pp
13%
Away Win
11%
+2.3pp
38%
Under 2.5
22%
+16.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
78%
-16.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.9pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shanghai Shenhua EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 14%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
2.73/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.85
+5% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / -20%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
461 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 77%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
22.2 Crosses 9.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shanghai Shenhua
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Changchun YaTai
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.00 xG 0.95
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
242 Passes 384
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.04.2024 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-2 HT 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİN
22.07.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-1 HT 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİNSL
26.04.2023 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
03.11.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-0 HT 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİN
05.08.2022 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 0-0 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
18.10.2021 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-2 HT 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİNK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shanghai Shenhua
3-2
AWAY Changchun YaTai
4.00 xG 1.30
56% Ball Possession 44%
26 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
372 Passes 269
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
44 Box Touches 14
33 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun YaTai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shanghai Shenhua nicked a narrow win over Changchun YaTai 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shanghai Shenhua as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Shanghai Shenhua had 56% of the ball to Changchun YaTai's 44%, shots finished 26-13, expected goals 4.00 to 1.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Shanghai Shenhua's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shanghai Shenhua had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.33 for Changchun YaTai.

What was the final score of Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun YaTai?

Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Changchun YaTai in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun YaTai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shanghai Shenhua win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Shanghai Shenhua 69%, draw 18%, Changchun YaTai 13%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shanghai Shenhua), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shanghai Shenhua) ✓ Over 2.5
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