Gimnasia Mendoza 2-1 Atletico Rafaela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.48
Over 2.5
36%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.44
No
62%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
64%
+0.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
36%
-0.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
37%
+1.3pp
62%
BTTS No
63%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimnasia Mendoza EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
1.30/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.32
-2% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
427 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimnasia Mendoza
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Rafaela
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2024 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 4-1 HT 2-0 Gimnasia Mendoza Gimnasia Mendoza ARJPBN
18.09.2022 Gimnasia Mendoza Gimnasia Mendoza 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
27.12.2020 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 2-1 HT 2-0 Gimnasia Mendoza Gimnasia Mendoza ARJPBN
08.03.2020 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 1-5 HT 0-2 Gimnasia Mendoza Gimnasia Mendoza ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Gimnasia Mendoza vs Atletico Rafaela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimnasia Mendoza edged past Atletico Rafaela 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gimnasia Mendoza as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Atletico Rafaela led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza and 2.00 for Atletico Rafaela.

What was the final score of Gimnasia Mendoza vs Atletico Rafaela?

Gimnasia Mendoza 2-1 Atletico Rafaela in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimnasia Mendoza vs Atletico Rafaela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gimnasia Mendoza win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Gimnasia Mendoza 50%, draw 24%, Atletico Rafaela 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gimnasia Mendoza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gimnasia Mendoza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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