Atletico Rafaela 4-1 Gimnasia Mendoza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 26 Feb 2024

📅26/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.0
Draw
39%
2.94
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
74%
1.44
Over 2.5
26%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.33
No
63%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
45%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
13%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
46%
-9.9pp
39%
Draw
30%
+8.6pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.3pp
74%
Under 2.5
66%
+8.1pp
26%
Over 2.5
34%
-8.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
39%
-1.8pp
63%
BTTS No
61%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia Mendoza EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.27/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.88
-3% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +36%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Rafaela
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Gimnasia Mendoza
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2022 Gimnasia Mendoza Gimnasia Mendoza 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
27.12.2020 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 2-1 HT 2-0 Gimnasia Mendoza Gimnasia Mendoza ARJPBN
08.03.2020 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 1-5 HT 0-2 Gimnasia Mendoza Gimnasia Mendoza ARJPBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Rafaela
4-1
AWAY Gimnasia Mendoza
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Atletico Rafaela vs Gimnasia Mendoza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Rafaela cruised past Gimnasia Mendoza 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 39% / 25%) promised a tight game; Atletico Rafaela found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (74%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Rafaela had 53% of the ball to Gimnasia Mendoza's 47%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Rafaela and 2.33 for Gimnasia Mendoza.

What was the final score of Atletico Rafaela vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

Atletico Rafaela 4-1 Gimnasia Mendoza in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 26/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Rafaela vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atletico Rafaela 36%, draw 39%, Gimnasia Mendoza 25%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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